It was 60 days prior that the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a sign or the reason of Villa's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response was much more joyous. When Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team marched on to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard question to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing this season, while the positive results have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa had an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a side which has just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – but currently the margins are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their talisman to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened versus United.
His opener originated from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling the football into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like an essential England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the hero stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
