Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
